Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said India's economy will witness a decline in the current fiscal, but the drop will be limited if there is an economic recovery in the October-March period.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
Bullish over robust fundamentals and improving macroeconomic conditions, industry leader Deepak Parekh on Saturday said India currently has "exceptionally good conditions" in place to aspire for 10 per cent economic growth but much needs to be done to achieve that target.
Despite the rash of reform steps announced over the weekend, Standard Chartered India on Monday sharply lowered its GDP growth forecast to 5.4 per cent for FY'13 from 6.2 per cent earlier, citing slowing consumer demand, an anaemic industry and a weak services sector.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
The global brokerage has also lowered the growth forecast to 6.8 per cent for the 2014-15 fiscal.
The NCEAR has indicated some improvement in the fourth quarter of the current financial year.
India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks, the newly appointed CII president Rajiv Memani said on Thursday.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Thursday revised growth forecast for the country's economic growth upwards to 6.2 per cent in 2004-05 as against earlier estimate of six per cent.
From the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, HCL Tech, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Infosys were among the major winners. However, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Sun Pharma were among the laggards.
India's real GDP grew 8.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal.
NCAER has pegged the growth rate between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent, led by healthy projections in the industrial output and services sector.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), cautioned that stress tests indicate two scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may have to dip into their capital conservation buffers (CCBs), unless stakeholders infuse capital, under a scenario involving a gradual slowdown in domestic GDP growth and a moderate rise in inflation, with limited policy easing space available to the central bank.
Investment bank JPMorgan has cut the GDP growth forecast for India for 2008-09 to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent previously, citing expected moderation in industrial and service sector growth. The International Monetary Fund and Crisil have projected 8.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent GDP growth respectively. 7% is the lowest growth forecast for 2008-09 so far. JPMorgan said cut in growth expectations for India was due to US slump. It expects RBI to cut repo rate by 25 basis points.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
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The RBI said lead indicators point to continuing sluggishness in domestic economic activity in the first quarter of 2014-15.
The size of the GDP in the second quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.98 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.72 lakh crore a year ago
Financial services major BNP Paribas on Wednesday cut India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 3.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent earlier, saying the country's 'macro muddle' is fast approaching crisis proportions.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The economists, who were surveyed, also felt it will take time for banks to make any further reduction in deposit rates
There are some apparent paradoxes visible in the data from the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26). The gross domestic product (GDP) delivered a positive surprise with 7.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
Credit rating agency Crisil observed in its report that some 'high frequency indicators go out of whack' as credit growth and service tax collections are not in tune with the CSO's growth projections.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
The Reserve Bank on Friday said India is poised to become the growth engine of the world as it retained the GDP projection for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy review, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said the domestic economy exhibits resilience on the back of strong demand.
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed a slight recovery in January, amid faster increase in new orders, even as business confidence slipped to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years, a monthly survey said on Monday.
The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal
The agency had in May projected an economic growth between 7.7 and 8 per cent for this fiscal and Monday's revision comes within a week of rival Fitch Ratings, and Citigroup revising the same to 7.5 per cent from 7.7.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
One of the major contributors for the decline in growth will be the monsoon deficiency, which also affects non- agricultural sectors through demand effects, RBI report said.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
Beside manufacturing, deceleration was also witnessed in sectors like agriculture, construction and electricity, gas and water supply.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', with a stable outlook, saying a strong record of delivering growth and improving fiscal credibility will drive improvements in structural metrics. "India's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances," Fitch said, as it forecast GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5 per cent.
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