Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Thursday said India's economic growth may fall marginally to 7.5-8 per cent, but inflation outlook remained stable at 5-5.5 per cent in 2007.
With improved prospects for the farm sector, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Friday raised the economic growth forecast for 2005-06 to 6.8 per cent from the earlier six per cent.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
Bullish over robust fundamentals and improving macroeconomic conditions, industry leader Deepak Parekh on Saturday said India currently has "exceptionally good conditions" in place to aspire for 10 per cent economic growth but much needs to be done to achieve that target.
Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said India's economy will witness a decline in the current fiscal, but the drop will be limited if there is an economic recovery in the October-March period.
Despite the rash of reform steps announced over the weekend, Standard Chartered India on Monday sharply lowered its GDP growth forecast to 5.4 per cent for FY'13 from 6.2 per cent earlier, citing slowing consumer demand, an anaemic industry and a weak services sector.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
The global brokerage has also lowered the growth forecast to 6.8 per cent for the 2014-15 fiscal.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
The NCEAR has indicated some improvement in the fourth quarter of the current financial year.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Thursday revised growth forecast for the country's economic growth upwards to 6.2 per cent in 2004-05 as against earlier estimate of six per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped the most by 5.54 per cent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank. However, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
The Indian banking sector could be due for a rise in profitability after several quarters of net interest margin (NIM) compression. The Q2FY26 results suggest NIMs have bottomed out.
NCAER has pegged the growth rate between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent, led by healthy projections in the industrial output and services sector.
Investment bank JPMorgan has cut the GDP growth forecast for India for 2008-09 to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent previously, citing expected moderation in industrial and service sector growth. The International Monetary Fund and Crisil have projected 8.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent GDP growth respectively. 7% is the lowest growth forecast for 2008-09 so far. JPMorgan said cut in growth expectations for India was due to US slump. It expects RBI to cut repo rate by 25 basis points.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
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The RBI said lead indicators point to continuing sluggishness in domestic economic activity in the first quarter of 2014-15.
The size of the GDP in the second quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 33.98 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.72 lakh crore a year ago
Financial services major BNP Paribas on Wednesday cut India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 3.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent earlier, saying the country's 'macro muddle' is fast approaching crisis proportions.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
The economists, who were surveyed, also felt it will take time for banks to make any further reduction in deposit rates
Credit rating agency Crisil observed in its report that some 'high frequency indicators go out of whack' as credit growth and service tax collections are not in tune with the CSO's growth projections.
India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks, the newly appointed CII president Rajiv Memani said on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research expects India's Gross Domestic Product growth to decelerate to 8.3 per cent during current fiscal
The agency had in May projected an economic growth between 7.7 and 8 per cent for this fiscal and Monday's revision comes within a week of rival Fitch Ratings, and Citigroup revising the same to 7.5 per cent from 7.7.
The Reserve Bank on Friday said India is poised to become the growth engine of the world as it retained the GDP projection for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy review, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said the domestic economy exhibits resilience on the back of strong demand.
One of the major contributors for the decline in growth will be the monsoon deficiency, which also affects non- agricultural sectors through demand effects, RBI report said.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
From the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, HCL Tech, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Infosys were among the major winners. However, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Sun Pharma were among the laggards.
Beside manufacturing, deceleration was also witnessed in sectors like agriculture, construction and electricity, gas and water supply.
India's real GDP grew 8.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), cautioned that stress tests indicate two scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may have to dip into their capital conservation buffers (CCBs), unless stakeholders infuse capital, under a scenario involving a gradual slowdown in domestic GDP growth and a moderate rise in inflation, with limited policy easing space available to the central bank.
There are some apparent paradoxes visible in the data from the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26). The gross domestic product (GDP) delivered a positive surprise with 7.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
